[March 07, 2013]

Poll: Markey Takes Early Lead in Senate Race

U.S. Rep. Edward Markey has a double-digit lead over Democratic opponent U.S. Rep. Stephen Lynch and the three Republicans in the race for U.S. Senate in Massachassetts, according to a new UMass Lowell-Boston Herald poll.

The independent, nonpartisan poll found Markey leads Lynch by 29.5 percentage points among potential Democratic primary voters -- 50 to 20.5 percent, with 23 percent undecided -- as well as the Republican candidates in head-to-head matchups: 19.5 points over former Navy SEAL Gabriel Gomez (47 to 27.5 percent); 17.2 points over former U.S. Attorney Michael Sullivan (47.5 to 30.3 percent); and 23.2 points over state Rep. Dan Winslow (49.1 to 25.9 percent). Lynch leads the Republicans by margins of 18.4 percent (Gomez), 17 percent (Sullivan) and 24.5 percent (Winslow).

Eighty-six percent were aware of the June 25 special election, but most are unfamiliar with the candidates: 30.6 percent reported favorable views of Markey, but 30.6 percent had no opinion and 18.7 percent had never heard of him (49.3 percent combined). Even among those who said they follow politics closely, 32.2 percent had no opinion of Markey nd 17.2 percent never heard of him.

Regarding the other candidates, 41.6 percent had no opinion of Lynch and 18.7 percent had never heard of him (60.3 percent total); 38.9 percent had no opinion of Sullivan and 40.2 percent never heard of him (79.1 percent); 31.5 percent had no opinion and 53.4 percent never heard of Gomez (84.9 percent); 21.9 percent had no opinion of Winslow and 69.6 percent never heard of him (91.5 percent total).

"Ed Markey is the front-runner in a race characterized by lack of attention among voters. Markey's lead, while substantial against both Stephen Lynch and the Republican candidates, is built on a great deal of soft support. In a limited timeframe with competitive primaries on both sides, there are considerable obstacles for candidates to overcome. However, there is great potential for this race to shift as the campaign heats up," said Associate Prof. Joshua Dyck, co-director of UMass Lowell's Center for Public Opinion.

Respondents also expressed a strong feeling of distrust in government, with 12 percent saying they trust the federal government and 28 percent trusting state government. Full results are available at www.uml.edu/polls.

Results based on interviews with a random sample of 600 Massachusetts voters conducted March 2 through March 5 via landline and cellular telephones by RKM Research and Communications; poll designed and analyzed by Dyck. Statistical results based on a random-digit dial probability sample. Margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

UMass Lowell is a national research university that offers its more than 16,000 students bachelor's, master's and doctoral degrees in business, education, engineering, fine arts, health and environment, humanities, sciences and social sciences. www.uml.edu

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