"Slovenia Oil & Gas Report Q4 2013" now available at Fast Market Research [ClickPress (UK)]
(ClickPress (UK) Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) [ClickPress, Fri Oct 04 2013] There are glimmers of hope in the upstream oil and gas segment, with the Ascent-operated Petisovci tight gas scheme capable of improving near-term energy self-sufficiency and slowing the rate of growth in gas imports. However, overall volumes are likely to be relatively modest, with imported Russian gas set to dominate supply for the foreseeable future. Slovenia is opposed to proposals for an Adriatic LNG terminal that is backed by Italy. This puts the country at odds with EU energy policy in the region.
The main trends and developments in Slovenia's oil and gas sector are:
* Independent explorer Ascent Resources has recorded promising results from fracture stimulation at its Petisovci tight gas project in Slovenia. Operations at the Pg-11A well indicate the potential for high gas productivity. First production from Petisovci is expected in 2013. The company has been particularly upbeat about the prospects of the project, with estimates of gas-in-place of as much as 17bn cubic metres (bcm). In February 2012, Ascent reported a 22% increase in P50 gas-in-place (GIP) volumes - to 14.3bcm, which was above the 11.7bcm previously announced for the scheme. The 200 square kilometre Petisovci area straddles the Hungary/Slovenia border and contains three depleted shallow conventional oil and gas fields.
* Gas demand, which fell by 14% in 2011 (according to government data), made a partial recovery in 2012 and is expected to reach 1.2bcm by 2017, increasing to 1.5bcm by 2022. Domestic production for 2017-2022 is forecast to come in at around 0.8bcm based on the Petisovci-Lovaszi project, meaning that there will be a greatly reduced import requirement. Further success in proving up reserves and production potential could mean risk to the upside in terms of domestic gas supply.
* Oil consumption is expected to track the underlying GDP trend, with demand keeping pace with economic growth. A lack of supply infrastructure means a more dramatic rise in oil use is unlikely until much later in our 10-year forecast period. The country consumed around 2% less oil in 2012, according to EIA data. There is likely to be a gentle recovery in 2013 consumption, reaching a forecast 54,200b/d. Our projections state that oil consumption could reach 60,900b/d in 2017, before rising to an estimated 67,900b/d by 2022, met entirely by imports.
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