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THP program aims to stop crashes before they happen [The Knoxville News-Sentinel, Tenn.]
[September 21, 2014]

THP program aims to stop crashes before they happen [The Knoxville News-Sentinel, Tenn.]


(Knoxville News-Sentinel (TN) Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) Sept. 21--A Tennessee Highway Patrol trooper with any experience on the road already knows where the worst traffic crashes are likely to occur.

A patrol cruiser idling on the shoulder of the interstate often hints at a known problem area, such as a stretch of roadway that has been the site of a recent fatality. Likewise, a late-night checkpoint can mark the spot where experience has shown patrolmen they're likeliest to catch a drunken driver behind the wheel.



THP's top brass, however, admit that while the agency's chief mission is to save lives, much of their work historically has been a matter of reacting to tragedies rather than anticipating the worst before it happens.

Now, in effort to make a major reduction in highway deaths without adding manpower, the highway patrol has turned to sophisticated data mining, the same sort that optimizes Internet advertising, to make near-pinpoint predictions about crashes to come.


Map of area fatalities "We've got to figure out a way to work smarter," said Col. Tracy Trott, head of the THP. "We have really made a conscious decision to be a more proactive agency ... and not just be responding to people's tragedy. We've got to become a more data-driven department." THP has begun tailoring its day-to-day patrol routes across the state with the use of predictive analytic computer software. The program, deemed Crash Reduction Analyzing Statistical History, or CRASH, considers myriad variables beyond traffic volumes and crash statistics, incorporating other external factors such as weather forecasts, scheduled special events and even licensed liquor retailer locations.

"Anything we can input that gives it more data," Trott said. "So far that model has been effective and accurate in over 70 percent of its predictions. It's the wave of the future." The results are presented as a percentage of probability that a serious or fatal crash will occur within a specific 5-by-6-mile area during a four-hour window.

The software, purchased from IBM with a $243,000 federal grant secured by the Governor's Highway Safety Office, was tested over a six-month trial period in Jackson, Nashville and Cookeville earlier this year.

CRASH went into use statewide June 30, and the early results have proved promising.

PROMISING RESULTS During this year's Labor Day holiday weekend -- traditionally, one of the busiest travel times of the year -- 10 traffic fatalities among 10 crashes were reported in Tennessee, according to THP. That's down from 15 fatal crashes that resulted in 16 deaths statewide during the same period in 2013.

Trott expects the program to be become more effective as the agency continues to refine its use of the software.

"We're just scratching the surface," he said.

As cutting-edge as the technology may appear, predictive analytics actually is based on the same principles as programs long used in the private sector to predict retail shopping preferences, to calculate risks for insurance companies and even to build weather forecasting models.

"Predictive analytics is an evolution of statistical modeling -- it just adds that extra dimension," said Mike Reade, public safety consultant with IBM. "The beauty of it, though, is the options are wide open to consider these what-ifs." And its use is becoming increasingly common among police agencies.

IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS The Memphis Police Department was an early adopter of the IBM software in 2006, using the technology to forecast the likeliest times and locations for serious and violent crime. The result was a 36 percent reduction in homicides and robberies over six years and a 55 percent drop in car thefts, according to the Commercial Appeal.

In a similar approach, the Miami-Dade County Police Department began using the technology in robbery investigations to identify probable suspects among known criminal offenders.

The THP, though, may be the first police agency to adapt the software to traffic enforcement, Reade said.

Trott says CRASH is the highway patrol's latest strategy in a larger, concerted effort to focus enforcement on those factors that most often contribute to traffic-related deaths -- impaired driving, speeding, seat belt violations and, increasingly, distracted driving.

"We decided we wanted to concentrate on those things that kill people," the colonel said.

Since 2011, THP has made a 160 percent increase in DUI arrests, and issued 240 percent more seat belt citations, he noted.

In turn, Trott said Tennessee has recorded three of its four lowest annual fatality rates in that same time.

According to Tennessee Department of Safety and Homeland Security preliminary figures, 995 people were killed in vehicular crashes in 2013. Traffic fatalities totaled 1,014 in 2012, and 937 roadway deaths were recorded statewide in 2011.

"That's not by accident," Trott said. "We're on a record-setting pace this year." BY THE NUMBERS As of Monday, Sept. 15, 666 traffic-related deaths have been recorded statewide so far this year, versus 718 fatalities during the same time frame in 2013 -- an approximately 7 percent reduction.

That includes 34 traffic deaths reported in Knox County this year, compared with 42 at this point in 2013, according to state figures.

No clear trends were apparent in a review of Knox County traffic deaths reported among all investigating law enforcement agencies since 2009. The majority of those local fatalities occurred on Interstate 40, totaling 28 deaths within a five-year span, according to reports compiled by the state.

"Predictive analytics is not the silver bullet, but it's part of the answer," Trott said. "We're certainly better off with (CRASH) this year than we were last year without it." ___ (c)2014 the Knoxville News-Sentinel (Knoxville, Tenn.) Visit the Knoxville News-Sentinel (Knoxville, Tenn.) at www.knoxnews.com Distributed by MCT Information Services

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