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Innovations: Move over humans, the robocars are coming [Sunday Independent (South Africa)]
[October 26, 2014]

Innovations: Move over humans, the robocars are coming [Sunday Independent (South Africa)]


(Sunday Independent (South Africa) Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) My prediction is that in fewer than 15 years, we will be debating whether human beings should be allowed to drive on highways. After all, we are prone to road rage; rush headlong into traffic jams; break rules; get distracted; and crash into each other.



That is why our automobiles need tank-like bumper bars and military-grade crumple zones.

And it is why we need speed limits and traffic police. Self-driving cars won't have our limitations.


They will prevent tens of thousands of fatalities every year and better our lifestyles. They will do to human drivers what the horseless carriage did to the horse and buggy.

Tesla's announcement of an autopilot feature in its next-generation Model S takes us much closer to this future. Yes, there are still technical and logistical hurdles; some academics believe it will take decades for robotic cars to learn to navigate the complexities of the "urban jungle"; and policy makers are undecided about the rules and regulations. But just as Tesla produced an electric vehicle that I liken to a spaceship that travels on land, so too will it keep adding software upgrades until its autopilot doesn't need a human operator at the steering wheel. I expect this to happen within a decade - despite the obstacles. I have already placed an order for the new model so that I can be part of this evolution.

Tesla isn't alone in developing semi-automated driving assistants.

Most car manufacturers now offer options in their high-end vehicles to keep them within their lane, adjust speed, warn of pedestrians, and stop in the event of an impending accident. These technologies work well. The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety tested the automating braking systems of 24 vehicles and gave 21 a ranking of "superior" or "advanced".

The new Tesla will be better than all of these. It will have sensors for image recognition, a 360-degree sonar system that can "see" its surroundings, and long-range radar to recognise signs and pedestrians. It will be able to change lanes on its own, obey speed-limit signs, avoid accidents, and park itself. It also will be able to pick us up at our front doors in the morning after driving itself out of the garage. Because Tesla controls practically everything with software - including the driving, suspension and climate - it can keep adding new features. Its cars are internet-connected, and software updates are downloaded automatically, usually every month.

Google is far ahead of Tesla in the race to build robotic cars. It already has several on the roads in California and says that they have logged 1 120 000 autonomous km.

But Google is going for all or nothing. Its new prototype vehicles don't even have a steering wheel.

The challenge this creates - and a problem that Tesla and the other carmakers will also face - is that the driving system has to be perfect before it can be allowed on the road without a human co-pilot.

This also creates many legal and ethical issues. Who is responsible, for example, when a fully autonomous car has an accident? The liability issues regarding fully driverless cars will be easy: the car's manufacturer or software maker will be responsible for any accident unless it can be shown that a human driver was at fault.

But the hard part is what Ryan Calo, a University of Washington law professor, calls the "social meaning" of technology.

He observes that a driverless car may always be better at avoiding a shopping cart. And it may always be better than a human at avoiding a stroller. But what if the car confronts a shopping cart and a stroller at the same time? A human would plough into the shopping cart to avoid the stroller; a driverless car might not. Meanwhile, the headline would read: "Robot Car Kills Baby To Avoid Groceries." This could end autonomous driving in America.

There will be many difficult choices and endless debates about ethics. But we can work these out.

The numbers of fatalities caused by robotic cars will be a tiny fraction of the millions that humans have caused, after all.

And if political leaders and lawyers in the US try to stop progress, other countries will still adopt the new technologies; they are unstoppable. The big advantage that self-driving cars will have is that they don't need the safeguards and controls that humans do. - |The Washington Post l Wadhwa is a fellow at Rock Center for Corporate Governance at Stanford University, director of Research at Duke University, and distinguished scholar at Singularity and Emory universities.

The Sunday Independent (c) 2014 Independent Newspapers (Pty) Limited. All rights strictly reserved. Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (Syndigate.info).

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